Welcome to DouglasDeBono.Com, the Cyberspace Home of author Douglas De Bono

Welcome to DouglasDeBono.Com, the Cyberspace Home of
author Douglas De Bono.

North Korea and the Bomb

North Korea has 6 nuclear reactors. A remarkable achievement for a country where the average peasant is so hungry that tree bark and moss are considered delicacies. An incredible accomplishment for a country that has locked up thousands in a Soviet style gulag, and for the rest a long walk across China to Mongolia is the only practical avenue towards freedom.

Normally, I am in favor of nuclear power as another component for power production. However, North Korea is not interested in turning on the lights, quite the opposite, North Korea’s nuclear interest tends towards punching American lights out. For a country that is literally starving to death, the North Korean nuclear program is designed to produce and distribute nuclear weapons. The list of North Korean reactors is as follows:

Yongbyon – A 0.1 MW (megawatt) reactor built by the Soviets in the early 1960s.
Yongbyon Reactor I – A 20-30 MW reactor based Soviet MAGNOX technology. MAGNOX is a graphite moderator that used aluminum/magnesium clad natural uranium and CO2 gas for cooling. Construction completed in 1984. Operational 1990.
Yongbyon Reactor II – A 50 MW reactor based on Soviet MAGNOX technology. Construction completed in 1989. Operational 1992.
Taechon Reactor I – A 200 MW MAGNOX. Construction completed 1996.
Taechon Reactor II - A 600-800 MW reactor. Completed 1997.
Simpo Reactor I – A 635 MW based on East German technology. This technology transfer has continued via Iran, Libya, Syria and Yugoslavia.
Yongbyon Separation Plant – This is a plutonium separation facility that was built 1987.

These reactors are located 60 miles north of Pyongyang. The Yongbyon and Taechon sites are 20 miles apart. CIA estimates suggest that Yongbyon II is capable of producing between 10 – 12 nuclear weapons per year, and Taechon II could produce between 30 and 40 nuclear weapons.

Ten years ago, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The Clinton foreign policy team interpreted this move as a bargaining ploy. Incredibly, they sent that hard bargaining former president Jimmy Carter to hammer out what came to be known as the 1994 Agreed Framework.

The highlights of the Agreed Framework are as follows:

1. Normalize economic and political relations by reducing trade barriers and exchanging ambassadors.
2. De-nuclearize the Korean Peninsula by removing American nuclear weapons (done) and halting the production of North Korean nuclear weapons (oops!).
3. Freeze on North Korean reactor construction and dismantle North Korean processing facilities (oops again).
4. Permit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). These myopic folks never noticed or reported the massive procurement and production taking place under their noses.
5. Dispose of spent fuel from plutonium reactors. The spent fuel was stored, but shipped out of country. Right now it is being reprocessed into enriched uranium and plutonium.
6. Retain the Nuclear Nonproliferation (NNP) Treaty.
7. Provide 500,000 metric tons of fuel oil (America guaranteed and supplied the fuel—most of it went to North Korea’s million man army).
8. Construct two light-water reactors (American guaranteed to start these reactors, but the Clinton Administration never got around to it, and Team Bush told the North Koreans to “pack sand.”.

When Jimmy Carter occupied the Oval Office, he signed SALT II. One of the reasons SALT II never made it through the senate was due to the fact that it could not be verified. Everyone knew the Soviets were cheating on SALT I, and everyone expected America to adhere to the rules. For the Carter and Clinton administrations verification never ranked very high. They preferred to rely on ineffective international agencies like the IAEA.

[Douglas De Bono / DouglasDeBono.Com] The only question regarding North Korean non-compliance is whether they waited for the ink to dry on the Agreed Framework. Incredibly, the Clinton Administration knew North Korea continued to refine nuclear fuel and build underground enrichment facilities. The quest for a nuclear arsenal never abated. They did nothing. This is a breach of trust that is difficult to fathom. Instead of punishing North Korea, the guaranteed fuel shipments and the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula went forward.

Which brings us to today. Once again North Korea is withdrawing from the NNP and producing nuclear bombs. They have buzzed RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft, and threaten nuclear war. They have disabled the IAEA monitoring cameras, restarted the Yongbyon and Taechon reactors, and could produce weapons grade materiel by Summer 2003.

The North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Il, is a certifiable crazy. He threatens to wage nuclear war against South Korea, Japan and the United States. He chooses the eve of war with Iraq to make these pronouncements, without regard that by limiting a President’s options he increases the odds for a tragic miscalculation.

America has maintained a trip wire force of 37,000 troops along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea. Their presence served as a deterrent to further conflict. However, a conventional military operation designed to eliminate the North Korean threat probably would result in the release of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against American troops on Seoul. This could result in thousands of American casualties and millions of civilian deaths in Seoul. Besides a burgeoning nuclear threat, North Korea has chemical and biological WMD and Seoul is barely thirty miles south of the DMZ. The North Korean army has upwards of 8000 artillery pieces capable of hitting Seoul.

The current force structure is based on a quickly fading concept of containment. During the Cold War, Soviet hegemony was effectively blocked by a policy of containment and the doctrine of mutual assured destruction. This worked when rational people sat in Washington and Moscow. It appears to be a recipe for disaster along the Pyongyang/Washington axis.

Diplomatic pressure seems lack luster. China is sitting on its hands; Moscow has diminished influence, Tokyo and Seoul are examining their military options. In 1981, Israel faced a similar nuclear dilemma. The French built Osiraq reactor at the Al Tuwaitha Nuclear Center outside Baghdad placed nuclear weapons within the reach of another certifiable crazy—Saddam Hussein.

Unstable regimes in possession of nuclear weapons leads to nuclear blackmail and war. The elimination of Iraq as a procurer of ballistic missile and nuclear technology will put a severe dent in North Korea’s accounts receivable. Beijing claims to be America’s friend, but like the French their actions tell a different story. Beijing appears content to let America deal with two major crises on opposite ends of the world: Iraq and North Korea.

Twenty-two years ago, Israel decided that a diplomatic solution with Saddam Hussein was not possible. They chose the military option and destroyed Osiraq. It is doubtful that a North Korean diplomatic solution can be crafted that is both verifiable and realistic. Most likely the 24 strategic bombers that were deployed to Guam (February 2003) are there for more than show. America may have no other choice than to follow the Israeli example and risk the consequences—for the price of doing nothing is greater than the price of doing something.